- In its 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, Gartner found most blockchain technologies remain stuck in an "experimentation mode." The analyst firm said most applications are yet to live up to their hype, and that interest in them has waned as applications failed to deliver on their expected outcomes.
- As technology advances and unique use cases for blockchain applications continue to roll out, by 2021 analysts expect the technology will begin to evolve past this phase. But the "digital business revolution" promised by blockchain will need even more time. By 2028, Gartner projects blockchain will become fully scalable technically and operationally.
- As more stable blockchain platforms achieve portability and cross-chain functionality — and begin supporting private transactions with data confidentiality — the advances will move industry closer to mainstream blockchain adoption, according to Avivah Litan, research VP at Gartner.
The immaturity of blockchain technology has been delaying its application in enterprise settings, as the majority of applications have either stalled at the experimentation space or will be in need of replacement in the near future.
In last year's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, Gartner placed blockchain at the "peak of inflated expectations" in its tech development cycle. Now, the analyst firm states blockchain is in its "trough of disillusionment," a designation meant for "technologies and markets where interest has waned as experiments and implementations fail to deliver."
But that pattern isn't rare in the world of technology, especially when it comes to nascent offerings like blockchain. What's coming next is companies focusing on scale and deployment of blockchain capabilities.
How did hype rise so quickly for blockchain? Litan said two key factors came into play. The first is blockchain's revolutionary strategy of removing the central authority.
"The other reason is bitcoin," Litan said. "We tracked blockchain interest to the price of bitcoin and they directly correlated."