Dive Brief:
- AI PC shipment growth will rapidly decelerate heading into next year, according to a report published Wednesday by The Futurum Group. The sunsetting of support for Microsoft’s Windows 10 served as the primary motivator for enterprises adopting AI PCs in 2025.
- Growth rates will start to normalize in 2027, however, as enterprise AI PC adoption starts to follow a predictable PC refresh cycle, the report said. Eventually, AI PCs will replace most, if not all, traditional PCs, said Olivier Blanchard, research director of devices at The Futurum Group.
- The global AI PC market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 38% over the next five years. The firm’s most optimistic scenario estimates the AI PC market could reach nearly $350 billion by 2030.
Dive Insight:
Without the Windows 10 support deadline serving as a motivator, enterprises will need to see measurable improvements across several areas to advance AI PC adoption heading into 2026.
Many of the AI PCs available in the market today have limited capabilities, particularly for enterprise use, Blanchard said.
“That will change over time, as software vendors bring more on-device AI functionality to market,” Blanchard said in an email to CIO Dive. “But for now, because the majority of AI applications are still browser-based, there is no need for all new PCs to be on the cutting edge of on-device AI capabilities.”
IT decision-makers will be looking for AI PCs that boost worker productivity, bolster device and system security, lower total cost of ownership and result in a better return on investment, Blanchard said.
AI PC adoption has already faced ups and downs in 2025. Growth slowed earlier this year after tariffs and other macroeconomic uncertainties led to a reduction in enterprise investment. Still, Gartner predicted that AI PCs will represent 55% of the market in 2026 as enterprises look to double down on AI capabilities.
The need to future-proof organizations for AI will serve as the next significant driver for enterprise AI PC adoption, according to The Futurum Group report.
Dell Technologies last month raised its AI shipment guidance, which includes PCs as well as servers, for the full fiscal year to $25 billion, up 150% year over year, according to the company’s Q3 2026 earnings report. Meanwhile, HP reported growth in its AI PC shipments, which represented 30% of the company’s overall shipments in the fourth quarter ending Oct. 31.
