Dive Brief:
- Economists disagree on whether AI will create a software development hiring boom or bust, according to an Indeed Hiring Lab report published Wednesday. The research arm for the job search platform consulted more than 120 labor economists for its inaugural Labor Market Outlook Survey.
- Roughly 1 in 5 economists predicted software development as the most likely role to face job losses amid the technology's adoption, surpassing accounting and administrative assistance, according to Indeed. At the same time, 13 of the economists took a contrarian view, saying they expect positions in this category to increase as a result of AI adoption.
- The clash speaks to a common split among industry watchers on whether AI will boost or cut jobs, according to Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at Indeed's Hiring Lab. In the growth scenario, “these would not be your software development jobs of yesteryear,” Ullrich told CIO Dive. “These would be new, different jobs, but they would still fall in that sector.”
Dive Insight:
Change is the only constant in the downstream effect of enterprise AI efforts, but exactly what those changes will look like remains to be seen.
Two years from now, “even if there are the same number of jobs within an organization that a CIO is trying to manage, the skills required for those jobs are likely [going to be] quite different,” Ullrich said. “I personally believe that adaptability is going to be extraordinarily important.”
Software development has faced a reckoning for several years amid the rise of automated coding tools. Initially behaving as supportive acts that suggested lines of code, the tools have evolved into nearly autonomous code generators that can tackle complex engineering tasks. Businesses have retooled the way they approach the labor market, too, boosting demand for coders with AI skills.
AI-augmented software development roles grew nearly 600% in five years, according to a June report from Randstad Digital. Traditional developer roles increased just 28% in the same time frame, according to the company.
The transition has had its own set of challenges. More than 4 in 5 developers said that most of the time saved on coding is now devoted to reviewing the outputs from AI coding tools, a survey from software platform provider Harness found.
The shifts in software development processes are also contributing to broader concerns over runaway AI bills. Executives are keeping close watch on the cost of infusing AI development tools, coupled with higher data and infrastructure spending.
For CIOs, a top priority should be honing training initiatives in order to help IT workers navigate change, Ullrich said.
“Having employees who feel like they have the ability to upskill and reskill is going to be really important, because there’s likely to be a lot of stress amongst employees as this change is happening,” Ullrich said.
